GBP/USD loses traction near 1.2800 amid modest recovery of US Dollar

GBP/USD loses traction near 1.2800 amid modest recovery of US Dollar

  • GBP/USD trades weaker around 1.2805 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • The US Nonfarm Payrolls beat median market forecasts in June. 
  • The Labour Party secured a landslide majority in the UK general election, lifting the GBP. 

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note near 1.2805, snapping the seven-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The recovery of the Greenback drags the major pair lower. However, the downside for the pair might be limited amid the rising bet that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate in the third quarter. 

Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in stronger than expected, adding 206K net new jobs in June, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The previous month saw a sharp downside revision to 218K from the initial reading of 272K.

Additionally, US Average Hourly Earnings declined to 3.9% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 4.1%. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% for the first time since December 2021. Traders have raised their bet on a Fed rate cut this year as the employment growth in the United States slowed in June. 

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher as the Labour Party has secured a landslide victory in the UK general election 2024, winning 410 seats and marking a significant rise of 212 seats from the 2019 elections. A political party’s outright majority win is considered favorable for its financial markets and boosts the Cable. 

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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