Fed's Musalem: CPI data points to encouraging further progress, recession risks are low

Fed’s Musalem: CPI data points to encouraging further progress, recession risks are low

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem noted on Thursday that while the disinflation process is ongoing, the Fed policymaker would like to see more progress and highlighted that recession risks remain low.

Key highlights

High interest rates are pressuring parts of the economy.

The disinflation process is ongoing.

I see the economy growing between 1.5% and 2% this year.

I don’t think recession risks are high right now.

I don’t see a recession as likely, I see around 20% odds.

The current unemployment rate is still low despite the recent rise.

I supported Fed’s rate decision at June meeting.

Companies are still facing cost pressures, but workers are easier to find.

Companies saying wage growth returning to pre-pandemic levels.

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